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June Market Predictions

June Market Predictions: Some Encouraging Signs

May marked another month of wild swings in the stock market. By mid-month many investors were sitting on 10% losses in their portfolios and we began to hear the term “bear market”. Investor sentiment was exceedingly negative. A strong six day rally in the final days of the month stopped the bleeding finally and the major indexes all closed close to where they started. It was another episode of Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride stock market edition.

Does this mean the sell-off is over or was this just an example of a “bear market rally”? It is probably too soon to tell. The good news is that the current rally movement has pushed markets back to their first line of support (the 20 day moving average) and we are now approaching the 50 day moving average. In other words, markets may have found a short-term bottom. Price momentum seems to be improving. Stocks have begun to set more 52 week highs than lows (a sign of improving markets).

That being said, we are still in a fairly defined downward trend since January which means there could still be additional bumps along the road. Inflation remains an issue. Gas prices remain high. Recent weak economic data points to additional fractures in the economy. Retail consumers sentiment remains extremely pessimistic. Credit card balances increased last month pointing to trouble for the average American consumer. The adage goes “so goes the consumer, so goes the economy”.

So what should investors do considering what we know? As I always say, if you have been extremely uncomfortable over the past few months you should consider if you have too much risk in your portfolio. Talk with a financial fiduciary to help you determine what your current risk tolerance is and what an appropriate asset allocation should look like. Its ok if you decide your risk tolerance has changed by the way. Your willingness to take on risk can and SHOULD change over time. The important thing is that your portfolio pivots to accommodate any changes. Make sure your portfolio allocations are all still achieving their desired purpose. If you do not have a formal investment strategy, consider talking to a qualified fiduciary who can help you formalize your investment process. It is never too late to make sure your portfolio is working as hard as possible for you! If you have any questions, we are always happy to help!


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

May the Fourth Be with You

May the Fourth Be with You!

It’s May the Fourth Day and its yet time again for the Bank of the Empire (Federal Reserve) to meet this afternoon. Top on its list of discussions is the interest rate hike schedule for the rest of the year as they are widely expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point — the largest rate hike in more than two decades. It seems like the federal reserve has certainly used its own Jedi mind tricks for the past year and half as it has tried to tamper surging inflation while also trying to be gentle to the fragile economy as we emerged from the pandemic. Investors have been understandably rattled as they weigh the implication of a rising interest rate environment versus unchecked inflation. The fed is expected to hike interest rates even higher to bring inflation back from levels we haven’t seen in decades. It’s a hugely consequential policy decision that will affect virtually everything in the economy. The stock market is already having its worst start to the year since 1939 with the S&P 500 being down over 13% as of the end of April. Hiking rates is only making investors more antsy.

The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by raising the federal funds rate. This is the average interest rate that banks pay each other for overnight loans. By raising the cost of borrowing between banks, the increased costs associated are passed along to consumers and seen in interest rates increasing. Investors are feeling much like when Luke Skywalker said to Obi-Wan- “I got a bad feeling about this”. A rising interest rate environment can negatively affect a company’s bottom line earnings, which can quickly lead to decline in valuation. Bonds are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes. When the Fed increases rates, the market prices of existing bonds immediately decline. That’s because new bonds will soon be coming onto the market offering investors higher interest rate payments. Businesses and consumers will likely cut back on spending when the cost to borrow money rises.

If raising interest rates feels like something that comes from The Dark Side, why are they doing it? The implications of leaving rock bottom interest rates are that eventually inflation begins to run unchecked. We have seen the effects this year at the grocery store, the gas pump, and department stores as prices have surged in many sectors. This is after the sugar rush frenzy that occurred after billions of dollars of stimulus hit the economy as interest rates remained in the historical lows. It was a perfect storm for inflation to eventually begin to run hot. The Fed’s intent in raising rates is to discourage spending just enough to bring down inflation, without tipping the economy into recession — what economists call a “soft landing.”

As you can see, the Federal Reserve must constantly balance the widespread implications of their policies. Today, they are meeting to discuss the aggressiveness and timing of future rate hikes. I am not a Jedi master; however, I think it is reasonable to expect continued volatility in the stock market as investors grapple the short and intermediate affects that a rising interest rate environment can bring. In the meantime, this could be a good opportunity to review your current portfolio. Some areas of the market tend to do very well or very poorly in rising interest rates, so you want to make sure your current allocations are still performing their intended purpose. As always, we are happy to help you, especially during these uncertain times. As Yoda once said “In a dark place we find ourselves, and a little more knowledge lights our way.

May the Fourth Be With You!


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Will April Bring Bulls or Bears to the Stock Market

Will April Bring Bulls or Bears to the Stock Market?

We all know that April showers bring May flowers. What investors are wondering is if April is going to bring the bulls or the bears to the stock market. As been the case lately, either could make an appearance. We have seen the major indexes show sharp rallies since the market lows in February. This was not unexpected as markets were sharply oversold on nearly every signal. As we have previously discussed, you can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps back in the opposite direction just as hard. However, since markets have rallied over 5% off the bottom we are now over bought in most areas for the short term. The good news is that we are now sitting above short-term moving averages. If the market can work off the overbought condition without violating support, the bulls could certainly regain control of the narrative. There is also additional support for a continued bull rally. Higher interest rates will cause bond yields to go down, which will lead to more flows into equities as they are the only alternative to low yields. Historically, the month of April is typically a strong month for stock market return.

This doesn’t mean the market does not still have the potential for challenges ahead. Inflationary pressures can eat away at corporate growth causing earnings to fall. We are seeing the effects of the massive surge of liquidity that was poured in the economy during 2020. While it provided a short-term sugar rush to the economy, we are now seeing inflation surge with no end in sight. As inflation remains unchecked, slower economic growth could lead to continued declines in stocks. The Federal Reserve is raising rates this year, which will cause the cost to borrow money to increase further threatening bottom lines for some companies. Geo-political risk remains elevated and could cause short and intermediate term volatility.

Investors may be scratching their heads asking what side do they fall on? The good news is that you don’t need to pick a side. Investors can take prudent steps while we wait to see what markets will do in both the short and long term. This is a good time to review your asset allocations. If something isn’t working now, you may consider reallocating. Make sure you or your investment manager has clear buy and sell rules for your portfolio. You should have an identifiable exit plan for times when markets or sectors reverse. If you are uncomfortable with current volatility, consider if you are invested appropriately. Taking on more risk than necessary pays off, until one day it doesn’t. This is a good time to perform your own risk assessment. We are happy to speak with you if you have questions about your current investments. No one knows what the future will bring, we can only take educated guesses. However, it seems both the bulls and the bears are going to continue to play tug of war as we head into Spring. As always, if you have questions we would love to help.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Historic Trends in Market Volatility and Global Instability

Historic Trends in Market Volatility and Global Instability

We have all been watching the tragic events in Ukraine unfold. Our hearts and prayers are certainly with all the innocent lives being affected and praying that resolution will be found quickly and peace will be restored.

It is no surprise that we have seen the global financial markets experience increased volatility since the invasion began. If you follow Ashley’s videos you will know markets were extremely deviated from their long-term moving averages and were well overdue for a pullback as we entered 2022. Markets have been under pressure since January as they tried to grapple with rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, slowing economic growth, and disappointing earnings growth. Geopolitical instability just threw gasoline on an existing fire. I have attached a chart that shows the history of market corrections and how often investors should be prepared for 5% ,10% and even 20% corrections over time.

Historic Trends in Market Volatility and Global Instability

Historic Trends in Market Volatility and Global Instability

Markets are holding up well considering the current circumstances we are experiencing. The S&P 500 is currently trading above the October 2021 lows when we experienced a near 5% decline. We just haven’t really gone anywhere since October 4th trading sideways with bouts of high volatility. There are additional headwinds markets will need to contend with over the next few months, but the biggest concern remains the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Despite the recent correction, the markets remain convinced the Fed will hike a minimum of four times in 2022 and further in 2023. At the same time, the liquidity support from ongoing “Quantitative Easing” programs will reverse. However, if the Federal Reserve decides to be less aggressive with either considering the current level of volatility, markets will likely see at least short-term rallies. Markets are significantly oversold on nearly every level and so bounce in positive performance would not be unexpected.
Considering everything we know, what should investors do right away? In short, nothing. Notably, geopolitical events have only minor impacts on markets and tend to be short-lived. Therefore, making significant changes to portfolios based on geopolitical events has generally not worked out well for investors. I would warn if you have been feeling uneasy during the last two months it could be a sign you are invested too aggressively. You could use any upcoming rallies to reduce equity exposure and rebalance your portfolio. As mentioned above, there are still headwinds to contend with outside of the Russian Ukraine invasion and they will likely be present for the foreseeable future. You can also watch Ashley’s youtube video https://youtu.be/VJkxic3CbW0 as she discussed charts looking back at the last Ukrainian invasion in 2014 and how markets responded then. During that time, markets had been under pressure even before the invasion. The bottom of the market came the day of the invasion, and a strong rally began the very next day and lasted for months. No one can say if we will see the same this time, but history does have a habit in repeating itself. For now, our hearts and prayers are with Ukraine and the innocent lives being affected by this tragedy. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us, we are always here to help.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

February 2022 - Expect The Wild Ride to Continue

February 2022 – Expect The Wild Ride to Continue

January’s stock market action felt a little too much like Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. Investors endured head spinning volatility at times, particularly towards the end of the month. From Monday January 24th through Friday January 28th the S&P increased or fell by over 100 points, within 24 hours, seven times. Some of those fluctuations were closer to 200 points. The technology heavy Nasdaq index was down five straight weeks (16% from its highs) which is its longest losing streak since 2012. Small caps were down a jaw dropping 22% off their highs and have closed in a technical bear market. If you read last month’s blog So Goes January, So Goes the Year? you are wondering if markets have priced in the bottom or if more losses are on the horizon.

I would like to start off by saying that market pullbacks and corrections (while painful in the short term) are necessary parts of normal market cycles. In a normal market environment, we can expect the S&P 500 to decline 5% or more about three times a year. 10% corrections occur about every 16 months. The last major pullback for the S&P 500 was in September 2021 when it slumped 5.2% before rocketing back to close out the year. Investors are asking if we have reached the bottom of the current sell off, or if there is more downside pressure looming.

As usual the consensus is a mixture of good and bad news. The market most recently began trading in a very tight range between previous bottoms and the tops of recent bounces. The good news is that buy signals are in place, and support levels are holding. The not-so-good news is that a violation of current support could certainly lead to a deeper decline. Fourth-quarter GDP rose 6.9%, well above expectations of 5.5%. The gains were driven by a pickup in consumer spending and a surge in inventories as rising inventories contributed 4.9% of the 6.9%. The sharp rise in inventories is a good sign that some of the supply shortages are going away, but this growth will be hard to sustain moving forward. The biggest wildcard seems to be exactly how the Federal Reserve will continue to respond to inflation. It has already been decided to raise rates beginning this quarter as well as to aggressively taper off their bond repurchases. The decision rattled markets who were accustomed to the low-rate environment however it was certainly not a surprise move. My guess is if the above interventions have the desired impact on inflation, investors will be willing to move past the rate hikes, but we will need to wait and see.

What does this all mean? Investors should continue to closely monitor their positions and risk tolerance. If you were uncomfortable during the past month, you may want to use any upcoming rallies to reduce some of your equity exposure as it’s possible to see extended volatility. Most importantly, make sure your portfolio allocations have specific roles and that they are achieving them. Some equity funds are more volatile by nature than others so be clear about their purpose. Not all bond funds are the same so if you are looking for better principal protection you will have a good idea how they are performing in this current environment. As always, we are here to answer any questions you may have. We are happy to help. Stay warm and stay safe! See you in March!
Best,


Ashley Rosser, President

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

The Start of 2022 Signals Caution for Investors

The Start of 2022 Signals Caution for Investors

Happy New Year! I hope the first few days of 2022 finds you and your family well. 2021 brought many challenges to our nation and it appears some of those challenges will follow us into the new year. Some of those challenges certainly impacted areas of the market, some positively, others not. Many investors are asking what to expect this year regarding this year’s stock market performance. One thing I definitely know is that no one ACTUALLY knows what the stock market will actually do in the future. What we can do is take the information we know to make informed decisions regarding our future investment actions.

Investors are still feeling overwhelmingly positively about the market and that is good for market returns in the short term. As investors continue pouring into equities the momentum will likely keep dragging markets higher. Much like a car rolling downhill in neutral, tapping the brakes initially doesn’t do much to curb the momentum. However, keep pushing on the brake pedal long enough, and the car will slow to stop. There are certainly “brakes” that exist in the current investment environment. Inflation may remain more persistent than anticipated which impedes consumption and compresses profit margins. The Federal Reserve has already began its taper of assistance and we will likely see rate hikes on the near horizon. Additional stimulus seems unlikely at this point, if we see any it will be widespread checks to households seen in 2020 and early 2021. This will probably lead to less liquidity in markets as Americans won’t have the “cash to burn” they did after other stimulus checks. Economic growth has shown some signs of stagnation.

In today’s changing environment, what should investors do? I believe the New Year is the perfect time to look over your portfolios and see if any changes should be considered. Do you know what positions you hold and more importantly do you know why? Every position should have a specified purpose. Is the allocation there for long term growth, to hedge against inflation, for principal stability, or to provide diversification from other portfolio positions? More importantly, is the allocation still working? If your answer is “no” or “I am not sure” this could be an important time to get those questions answered. If the position is not working now, investors should consider if it needs to be replaced. Investors should also understand that if we do see significant changes like what is outlined above then what has been working well for the past few years may not continue to. It is possible we will see a rotation from growth to value in the future, particularly if inflation continues to rise unchecked. It is also quite possible that what HAS been working for the past decade (growth, tech, etc) will also continue to reign supreme. As you remember regarding future market performance “no one knows anything” . We can only do our best to hedge our bets based on the information available. We will continue to use math and rules-based investing to find areas of positive momentum and growth for our clients in the coming year. If you have any questions about your current portfolio please don’t hesitate to reach out as we are always happy to help. Wishing you and your family a very happy new year!


Ashley Rosser, President

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Is a December Santa Rally in the Forecast

Is a December Santa Rally in the Forecast?

Is Santa still preparing to make his stop on Wall Street this year? After very strong performance in October, returns were much less festive for November. New covid-19 variants have spooked investors who were already concerned about inflation and federal reserve tapering. The current market actions were not surprising, however. If you have been tuning in to our Mid-Week Market updates, you will know the markets were primed for at least a short term pull back. Indices have been trading far above their short and intermediate term moving averages and October’s movements pushed us into extreme levels of deviation. As a reminder, moving averages act like magnets, pulling stock prices toward them. This is how averages ultimately work, but when we become significantly deviated on the upside, the reversion back down can be quite painful. On Black Friday markets were deeply in the red as news of the new Covid-19 strain hit news outlets. The selloff continued the last trading day of November and the S&P 500 had lost all gains and closed negative for the month.

It was a rough start for the “seasonally strong” period for the stock market. Does this mean Wall Street is on the naughty list and the Santa rally might skip us this year? While it is certainly not a guarantee, the statistical odds are high that we will see a “Santa Rally” as most professional managers will “window dress” portfolios for year-end reporting. Earnings remain very “nice,” and the market largely views “pandemic” related risks largely priced in. Although one could argue that it seemed caught by surprise on Friday. Yes, inflation is “naughty,” but the market seems convinced it will be transient. Furthermore, companies seem to be able to pass costs along to consumers, at least for now. Hopes are high that profit margins will continue to be strong, and eventually, earnings will catch up to valuations.

In closing, it is very possible that the last few days of volatility have set markets up to have a strong run for the end of the year. Relative strength indexes have gone from severely overbought to more normalized levels. For now, investor sentiment remains extremely positive and momentum is strong. While nothing is ever definite in the stock market, I do believe it is reasonable for investors to keep their eyes peeled for Santa to make his appearance at Broad and Wall Streets this year. We wish you and your family best wishes for a healthy and joyous holiday season and prosperous New Year. As always, if you have any questions about your current investment portfolio, please reach out to us. We are always happy to help.


Ashley Rosser, President

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

November Kicks Off The Strong Investing Season

November Kicks Off The Strong Investing Season

With the start of November, we have also officially moved into the “seasonally strong” half of the year, which lasts from November through May. You may remember in the spring I wrote about the adage “sell in May and go away” which points to the perceived idea that we would do just as well to sell our holdings as we would be invested in the market during the months of May through November. While this is a trend that is probably worth discussing, we would like to note this isn’t an actual investment strategy. However, we do know that trends should at least be studied and considered when possible.

When we look back all the way to 1950, the seasonally strong period certainly outperforms the weaker months. However, over the past 20 years the weaker period was still positive 14 of those years. The seasonally strong period did outperform significantly over the same 20 years. Since April 28, 2000, the Dow has gained 185%. However, the Dow is up just under 17% if we isolate only the seasonally weak periods over the same timeframe. The most recent season of weakness has been stronger than typical as the Dow returned 5.74% compared to its average of .84% over historical weak seasons. These points are not meant to be taken as a sophisticated tool for risk management, but it is interesting and does expose biases within the market that many investors are not aware of.

The market still must mitigate headwinds through the end of year such as the federal reserve begins it’s taper timeline, stagnating economic growth and continued inflationary pressures that may erode corporate profitability. But it does appear that the market theme remains to be incredibly bullish at least for now as we head into the last months of the year. We continue to see the broad-based markets continue their quest to push higher. As we enter this period of historical strength, it is not the time to “fall asleep at the wheel”. Investors should continue to closely monitor their portfolios. Every investment allocation should have a well-defined purpose, and this could be a good time to cut any “losers” from your lineup. For our clients, we continue to use math-based programs to help steer us to areas of increasing strength and momentum and away from areas of weakness. As always, we are happy to help if you have any questions regarding your current investment strategy. Wishing you and your loved ones a wonderful season of Thanksgiving this November.


Ashley Rosser, President

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

October Markets Are Off To A Scary Start

October Markets Are Off To A Scary Start

So far in October, its been more tricks that treats for the stock market. It has been a slightly scary start as the S&P 500 is currently down 5% off its highs from September 2nd. The last time we experienced a 5% pullback was October 28th 2020. In other words, we were well overdue to see the markets take a breather. Temporary pullbacks always still feel worse when we experience them, even when we knew they were coming.

Why are investors suddenly spooked? The good news is that Congress passed the necessary funding bill to avert a government shutdown ahead of the September 30 midnight deadline. Inflationary pressure continues to be problematic for the stock market. Higher inflation is usually looked on as a negative for stocks because it increases borrowing costs, increases input costs (materials, labor), and reduces standards of living. It is particularly troublesome for large cap growth and technology funds. Investors who buy growth stocks estimate what the current value of that future stream of earnings will be.  When inflation or interest rates start going up more than expected, it reduces the current value of the future stream of earnings. Supply chain bottlenecks are compounding concern for companies. The Federal Reserve may have also added to the jitters last week when it indicated that rate hikes could be coming sooner than expected, and it significantly cut its economic outlook for this year.

The news is not all frightening, however. While September is historically a weak month for the market, November and December tend to be the seasonally strong periods for performance. From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend remains intact. Many areas of the market are now in “oversold territory” so a bounce from previous support lines would not be unexpected (although nothing is ever a guarantee). It is important to watch what the stock market does in the next few weeks. This is certainly a time to be paying attention to both how much equity exposure you currently have as well as what areas of equities you hold. If you didn’t like the recent 5% pullback, you may want to consider your current allocations and if they are still appropriate. While there appears to be solid reasoning for the market to continue its climb higher, we should always try to “expect the unexpected” and reviewing portfolios before a major market event is always preferable to waiting until after. As always, if you have any questions about your current investment plan you can always give us a call. We are happy to help.


Ashley Rosser, President

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

What Does September Mean for Your Portfolio

What Does September Mean for Your Portfolio?

As we prepare to say goodbye to summer and hello to fall, I thought I would take some time to discuss the movements we have seen in the broad markets over the past few months. Last week, when the Federal Reserve mentioned possibly reducing the pace of asset purchases this year, the market swiftly responded with a “taper tantrum”. Markets fell over 2% that day which continues to suggest the market’s dependence on the federal reserve’s continued intervention. Jerome Powell was quick to calm investors by keeping the taper timeline in the distance for now and markets rebounded accordingly. Markets have grown accustomed to the fed’s willingness to intervene. This presents a risk in the future when tapering finally occurs. COVID remains a lingering concern for markets and while widespread shutdowns remain unlikely, rising infections can absolutely continue to stifle economic growth. While inflation seems to have cooled off for now, we continue to see significant supply chain disruptions. This may present issues for companies, specifically as we head into the Christmas season.

Despite some concerns, we have seen the major indexes all continue to climb higher. Technology, financials and consumer cyclicals remain the sectors that show the strongest relative strength. It is worth noting that real estate has been on the move over the past three months and continues to strengthen. We have made some changes to our investment models as a result of the movements observed. Conversely, commodities, currencies, international, emerging markets and fixed income continue to lag in relative strength. We will continue to watch to see if these patterns hold.

As we move into September, the S&P 500 remains extremely deviated from its long-term moving averages. This does have the potential to set up a short-term correction. The short pull back we saw last week brought us closer to a “normal” but it quickly rebounded back to over extension. There certainly seems to be an overwhelming bullish sentiment that has the potential to allow markets to keep moving higher. I do think as investors it is important to recognize that there is still short-term risk to markets. Last September, markets experienced a 10% correction. For investors who were caught off guard, it was a painful time. Corrections never feel good, especially if we are improperly allocated. This is a great time to review your portfolio allocations and make sure they are still appropriate. While we hope to see the early patterns of 2021 continue through the second half of the year, we are cognizant that the market is due for a healthy pullback. If you have questions about your current investment portfolios you are always welcome to give us a call. We are happy to help. Wishing you a healthy September.


Ashley Rosser, President

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.