Category Archives: Company News


March 2024 Market Recap and April Outlook

March 2024 Market Recap and April Outlook

It may only be April, but investors find themselves under the sweltering heat of inflationary pressures. Inflation has been simmering over the past months, and Wednesday’s numbers suggest that the heatwave might intensify. The implications of hot inflation numbers extend far beyond the aisles of grocery stores; they have the potential to sizzle the stock market, sending shockwaves through portfolios and reshaping investment strategies.

The first quarter of the year witnessed a surge in inflation, fueled by a variety of factors ranging from supply chain disruptions to fiscal policies aimed at reviving economies. Central banks around the world have been closely monitoring these developments, yet the hot inflation numbers have persisted, posing a significant challenge to policymakers and investors alike.

So, how might these soaring inflation figures impact the stock market in the second quarter?

Investors are likely to experience increased volatility as inflationary pressures continue to mount. The beginning of April has been an example of this. Historically, periods of high inflation have been associated with greater market turbulence, as uncertainty surrounding future purchasing power erodes investor confidence. Stocks, particularly those in sectors sensitive to inflation such as consumer discretionary and industrials, may experience heightened fluctuations in prices as investors recalibrate their expectations and assess the potential impact on company earnings.

Moreover, rising inflation can exert downward pressure on stock valuations. As inflation erodes the real value of future cash flows, investors may demand higher returns to compensate for the diminished purchasing power of their investments. This could lead to a repricing of equities, particularly those trading at elevated valuations. Risk reward comes into play and investors may be less likely to buy stocks at inflated prices. Companies with pricing power and the ability to pass on increased costs to consumers may fare better than those operating in more competitive markets.

Inflation can also influence the decisions of central banks, with implications for monetary policy and interest rates. The Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish stance, signaling potential rate hikes. Remember, the market has priced in perfection which includes multiple rate cuts this year. Higher interest rates can have a cooling effect on economic growth and corporate profitability, as borrowing costs rise and consumer spending declines.

Despite the challenges, inflationary pressures don’t have to cook investors this quarter. As heightened volatility becomes likely, it is important to concentrate on your long-term financial goals during periods of short-term fluctuations. As a reminder, pullbacks and corrections are normal market movements, and we are overdue for both. Diversification in your portfolio can also help to manage risk. A diversified portfolio can help cushion against losses in any single investment or market segment. Your investment process can also have a significant impact on your overall performance. We employ a process that helps us determine what areas in the market are strengthening as well as weakening. We choose our areas accordingly. This allows us to stack the odds in our favor. Engaging a fiduciary advisor can help you make non-biased investment decisions during times of unsettled markets.

In conclusion, the impact of hot inflation numbers looms large over the stock market as we navigate the second quarter of 2024. While inflationary pressures may induce greater volatility and pose challenges to equity valuations, investors can adapt their strategies amid the turmoil. By adopting a disciplined approach, staying focused on long-term goals, and implementing sound investment strategies, investors can navigate the ups and downs of the market and position themselves for long-term success. If you have any questions, please reach out. We are always happy to help! Happy Spring.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

August Stock Market Rally Continues To Run Hot

August Stock Market Rally Continues To Run Hot

Scorching temperatures are not the only areas that are heating up this summer. The stock market rally has continued to run hot, with no signs of slowing down in sight. The issue is, when does hot become “too hot?” When we look at the S&P500 and Nasdaq, there is a significant diversion from current levels and their moving averages. Notably, S&P 500 is trading 12.5% above its 200-Day Moving Average. While such does not imply an immediate correction, it does suggest that the upside may be more limited near-term. As a reminder, moving averages are as implied, the average price of a stock or fund. Those numbers can run diverged either higher or lower from their averages (sometimes for a long time) but eventually they will need to correct to a closer track. This is known as a reversion to the mean. Time can also allow averages to “catch up” to market performance but usually a combination of both time and correction is what brings markets back to closer alignment with their averages.

Also noteworthy is the length of the current rally. The S&P 500 is set to close out its fifth straight month of gains. In addition to being up six out of the seven months this year, returns are unusually high, with the S&P advancing 18% year-to-date. We must remember that market advances can only go so far before an eventual correction occurs. Sentiment also remains extremely bullish. “Everyone is on the same side of the boat”. No one expects the market run to slow down. That usually means that there will be at least a small correction in the short term. A pullback of 3-5% would certainly not be outside normal market movements and could be beneficial for markets as we head into the fall.

Earnings season continues to further bolster investor confidence. Two quarters of decently strong economic growth (2%+) seems to have put the word recession out of everyone’s minds. However, we know that portfolio stock risk increases the longer a run up continues. We also know historically August and September tend to be the weaker times of the year.

This leaves investors wondering what (if any) moves they should be considering as we prepare to close out the summer months. Selling your positions and moving to cash is not recommended but I do believe this is an important time to evaluate your portfolio positions as well as your investment philosophy. If you have not rebalanced all year, you may want to consider doing so now. This gives you the opportunity to trim back your winners to their original portfolio weights. You may also want to see if any of your positions are not working according to their original intension. We employ two main rules. “Let your winners run” and “Cut your losers quick”. The last consideration may be to deploy any cash on the sidelines systematically. This allows you to take advantage of market pullbacks to get better buying opportunities. While we know we can’t time the market exactly, we can use history to help guide our future moves to set odds in our favor. As always, if you have any questions about this month’s article, please give us a call. We are always happy to help. I hope you enjoy your final weeks of summer, and we will be back in September.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

July Markets Show Huge Reliance the Big Seven Companies

July Markets Show Huge Reliance the Big Seven Companies

As we enter those lazy, hazy days of summer, it’s hard to believe the first half of the year is behind us. It was a very interesting first six months from an investor standpoint. While the S&P 500 has had a very strong performance for the first two quarters, that does not necessarily show the entire picture. If you watched my video last month, I discussed areas that investors should at least be cognizant of. The first is the extremely narrow breadth that exists. In the S&P 500 we can attribute the positive performance year to date a result of just seven companies. You probably already guessed they are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta and Nividia. If you were to remove these companies from their indexes, performance as of 6/15/2023 would be around 1%. You can also see this being played out by comparing cap weighted indexes to equal weight indexes with cap weighted S&P 500 being up about 17% where the equal weight is up 7%. There is a huge reliance on the big seven companies and that is not necessarily a sign of healthy markets when we see such divergence. Another interesting point is if you were only invested in emerging markets, small caps, and mid-caps you likely had nearly neutral returns through 6/15/23 because you were missing the top seven companies in your portfolio. The main question is what happens when these areas begin to cool off, especially when they are extremely overheated, at least in the short term?

As we are in the traditionally weaker season of the year, you may be wondering what is “actionable. Probably for now, not much. Markets can be unpredictable for extended periods of time. If you have exposure to the top seven companies either directly through stocks or through index and mutual funds you should just be aware of the extension that exists. We know it’s nearly impossible to truly time the market. However, we can learn from market trends and allow our movements to be guided from that knowledge. This could be a good time for investors to review their portfolio and see if they are properly diversified in the right areas. We use relative strength to show us the best potential areas of the markets for performance. In the first half of the year technology, materials, industrials, large cap growth and large cap blend were all areas of strength. We will have to see if these trends hold through the end of the year and be prepared to reallocate if things begin to shift. Investors should also make sure their investment strategy is aligned with their overall risk tolerance. Taking on more risk than you are comfortable with because you are feeling “fear of missing out” is likely to eventually come back to bite later. As always, if you have questions about what we discussed or about your current investment strategy please give us a call. We are always happy to help. Enjoy the start to your summer and we will see you in August.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Threat of Recession Still Looms

June 2023: Threat of Recession Still Looms

Is the worst over for the financial markets? As you recall, 2022 was a year marked by steep declines across both the equity and bond markets. Bonds, which are typically used as a “safe haven”, had their biggest drawdown since 1786. The S&P 500 declined over 18% for the same period. High inflation and aggressive rate hikes combined with tightening monetary policy led to decreased economic growth and steep declines across the broad-based markets. However, since October, we have seen a strong rebound off the bottom. Currently, the biggest debate among financial analysts lies between whether an economic recession is avoidable.

There are three main debates. Those concerned about debt increases, surging interest rates, and a reversal of stimulus believe that a “hard recession” is inevitable. Some see the higher equity prices and believe that “no recession” is likely and earnings will begin to rise again. Finally, some believe there is the possibility of a “soft recession,” where the economy does slow but does NOT lead to a sharp increase in unemployment or a dramatic decline in equity prices.

No one knows which of these will play out as there is fair evidence for each of them. Investors can only take the information available to them and decide how much risk they are willing to take on as a result. I do know that the stock market tends to be forward looking. Technically, markets now have a confirmed breakout from the October lows meaning there is certainly now the possibility of markets going higher. Fundamentally, earnings are expected to grow rapidly through the end of 2023 and break above the 2022 peak. Both are notches in the belt for the bulls in the crowd. However, sticky inflation, high interest rates and threats of economic slowdown still exist and shouldn’t be dismissed.

Bonds have also been the center of discussion lately. After their disastrous performance last year, investors may feel less confident in their ability to be used to decrease portfolio volatility. However, the current environment does give support for bonds to be set up for positive returns. Bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates. When interest rates are rising, bonds will be affected negatively. An obvious example of this was what happened in 2022. If the Federal Reserve does begin to cut rates later in the year, bond values will go up. Bonds are also significantly oversold, adding to the argument that it may be time to consider adding them back to portfolios soon. In fact, if we do proceed into a recession, bonds have an opportunity to not just act as a hedge in portfolios but could outperform equities by a considerable margin.

For now, we continue to tread cautiously. While we remain fully invested, we are cognizant of the risks that remain, and our portfolios are constructed accordingly. If you have any questions about the current market conditions or would like a second opinion of your current allocations, please give us a call. We are always here to help.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

May 2023 Market Prediction Buy, Sell or Stay

May 2023 Market Prediction: Buy, Sell or Stay

“Sell in May and go away” is an adage that you may hear each year around this time. It suggests it would be beneficial for investors to go on vacation from their portfolios starting in May and not returning until November. Some historical analysis suggests the summer months of the market tend to be the weakest of the year. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 2% from May through October. That compares with a roughly 7% average gain from November through April. 

However, there are plenty of times this strategy would not have paid off. Stocks tend to record gains throughout the year, on average, so selling in May generally doesn’t make a lot of sense. Stocks have still grown on average even during this historically slower period, with the S&P 500 up around 65% of the time. History suggests the opportunity cost of periodically exiting and reentering the market may be significant. It’s extremely hard to time the market consistently.

There are plenty of reasons to consider caution as we head into May. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates another 25 bps this week. The question remains what their next moves will be. Core CPI numbers (inflation measures minus food and energy) continue to be sticky. However, cracks in the overall economy from cumulative rate hikes are appearing. There are signs of job market softening as continuing unemployment claims are elevated. We have also seen obvious stress on financial institutions and there is concern that after math contamination could spread to other banks. Economic slowdown risk remains elevated. This certainly leaves the Federal Reserve in a challenging position.

The current environment leaves investors also wondering what to do next. This could be a good time to steer portfolios to areas of strength and momentum and away from the areas that are dragging. As we always say, “let your winners run and cut your losers quick”. I expect the Federal Reserve to at least pause further rate hikes for the time being. If that occurs, we could see some rotations in both the equity and bond markets. Areas of quality companies in equities historically have performed better after a rate hike pause and reversal. In the bond markets, we could see a move to longer duration high quality companies and out of the ultrashort areas that have been outperforming recently. We will just have to see if history repeats itself.

There is certainly a lot of uncertainty for markets as we head into summer, but I still don’t think you need to go on vacation with your investments this May. You certainly want to make sure you have a clear set of investment rules you are following. Your portfolio allocations should each have an identifiable role in your overall strategy and it’s ok to fire them if they stop fulfilling those roles. As always, if you have questions about your current portfolio allocations, we are always happy to discuss them with you. Until then, we wish you the very best and look forward to being back in June!


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

April Showers May Be Bringing Bull Markets to Investors

April Showers May Be Bringing Bull Markets to Investors

It seems that April showers may also be bringing bull markets to investors. After mixed messages in the early parts of 2023, it seems as though markets have given investors the green light…for now. Markets have seen a steady rise since the October lows and have held important lines of support during most recent pullbacks. Currently, the Bloomberg Economic Growth Consensus for the U.S. economy is rising, with only one-quarter of negative growth expected. This is an improved consensus from previous reports. Economic analysts are also more optimistic by expecting that S&P also sees earnings bottoming in the first quarter and returning to its January 2022 peak. Therefore, if the earnings forecasts are correct, the market should reflect those forecasts and rise toward the previous market tops we saw last January. This is good news for investors at least for the short term.

But didn’t we just experience a major financial banking meltdown? Not really. I went into detail about what happened with Silicon Valley Bank during my last video. You can access that here https://youtu.be/DYx8u4aJzHY. But it appears the failure of the few regional banks were isolated and there has not been widespread contamination as a result. Does it reinforce concerns of a potential recession? Absolutely. And despite market technicals looking strong right now, there are plenty of recession indicators still sounding alarms. Inverted yield curves have historically resulted in eventual recessions. Tighter monetary policy, stricter lending standards and higher costs to borrow have all been pre cursors to economic slowdowns. We can’t just ignore these and say confidently that the Federal Reserve has achieved the impossible and avoided recession. Essentially, someone is going to have to be wrong.

So, what does that mean for investors? We want to participant in market performance certainly while minimizing excessive risk when possible. This is a good time to review your portfolio and see if anything is not following your rules for investments. We like to follow the rule of let your winners run and cut your losers quick. This can be tough to do if you are trading with emotions but not if you have a set of investment rules to guide your process. The best time to look at your allocations and set up your investment plan is before anything major is happening in the markets. This helps to keep fear out of your decision making. If you do not have a set of rules currently, we are always happy to sit down with you and help you go through that process. We are always happy to help. In the meantime, I wish you a beautiful spring season and will be back next month. Be sure so follow our youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@victoryfiduciaryconsulting2773 so you catch our monthly market updates between blogs.

 

 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Increasingly aggressive rate hikes will likely cause stock prices to falter.

March 2023 Market Prediction: Signals Flashing “Not So Fast”

If you remember last month’s blog, I asked the question “has the bear market officially been cancelled?” One month later, I don’t think we know the answer yet. There is a lot of reasons to be bullish when we look at market technicals. The S&P 500 has notched seven weekly closes above its 40-week moving average, which is a positive sign. In addition, the market has cleared the 40-week daily week moving average downtrend line from January and December 2022, suggesting a potential bullish turn in the trend. Also noteworthy is that the during the most recent pullback, the S&P 500 also held the 200 day moving average. This was a very important line of support to hold and is now considered support instead of resistance. So, this must mean we are in the clear?

The fundamentals are still flashing “not so fast”. Over the next 12 months, the “bear market is over” thesis will depend much on the Federal Reserve, Government policies, and inflation.  Today I was listening to Jerome Powell speaking that we are likely to see the prime rate need to move higher than expected. Increasingly aggressive rate hikes will likely cause stock prices to falter. As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten financial policy, we will see economic growth wane. Moving forward, as they continue attempts to finally quell inflation, each additional rate hike could bring us closer to recession. A recession would mean slower growth and decreased profit margins for companies. This would directly affect stock valuations.

The technicals and fundamental backdrops are currently in stark contrast with one another. What does that mean for investors? I think it means we continue to tread with caution. This may mean participating in market performance without taking on excessive risk. Your portfolio construction should take into consideration how much risk you are willing to take on. What are your goals for your investment accounts? The longer your time horizon, the less concerned you may be about short term risk and more interested in long term performance. A prudent investment process can you help you determine what areas of the market you should consider investing in. A pre-determined set of investing rules can also help you act quickly when its time to fire a stock or fund that is no longer fulfilling its assigned function. Remember, your allocations should be working for you, not against you. If you have questions about your current investment allocations we are always happy to take a look with you. Its our pleasure to help. Have a wonderful March.

 


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Has the bear market officially been cancelled

Has the bear market officially been cancelled?

Has the bear market officially been cancelled? Or are we amid another bear market rally not unlike what we experienced multiple times last year? Markets have had a strong start to the year with the S &P 500 rising more than 6% for the month of January. Although it has left investors scratching their heads wondering “what changed since December?” Last week Jerome Powell helped to fuel stock buying mayhem when he commented that the “disinflationary process has started.” This is a crucial statement, as noted by Yahoo Finance last Thursday: “Unlike inflation (prices going up) or deflation (prices going down), both of which economists fear in large quantities, disinflation means prices rise at a slower pace. Headline CPI, for example, rose 6.5% over the prior year in December after having jumped as much as 9.1% over the prior year in July. This deceleration in the pace of price increases is disinflation. “ This COULD give the Federal Reserve the ammunition needed to be less aggressive increasing rates. However, I believe they will need to continue at least two more rate hikes, and we are likely far from them even considering cutting rates. It is important to note that inflation remains elevated prices compared with historical averages so while we are cautiously optimistic, there remains potential risks for equities.

Market technicals are giving some signals that we are at least in a temporary bull market. Last week markets completed the “inverse head and shoulders” formation that could signal the bottom is finally in. Also notably, the 50-day moving average is rapidly closing in on a cross above the declining 200 day moving average. Such is known as the ‘golden cross’ and historically reassures investors that a bull market is preparing to move forward. You will recall last year we discussed the opposite of the signal as being the death cross and typically is the signal for a bear market. While market technicals ARE reassuring, we do need to still deal with the pesky lingering fundamental issues. Earnings and earnings estimates have been deteriorating. Inflation is still running over 5%. We still cannot dismiss the possibility of a recession on the horizon. This should at least give investors pause.

Certainly, as investors, we want to participate in market upswings. It is just important to make sure you don’t violate any of your investment rules in the process. As a reminder, don’t be afraid to cut losers quick and conversely let your winners run. Make sure your allocations have specific roles and responsibilities in your portfolio. If they are not fulfilling them, they may need to be replaced. Make sure decisions are driven by your rules and not emotions. Remember investment discipline will only work if you are following it. It’s always a nice way to start the year with strong gains after a year like 2022. The key now will be to see if we can continue the trend. As always, if you have any questions about your current investment portfolio, please give us a call. We are always happy to help.


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

Closing Out 2022 with Purpose and Gratitude

Closing Out 2022 with Purpose and Gratitude

As we approach another holiday season, it is always a wonderful time to reflect on all we are grateful for. As a family-owned investment management firm that has been operating for over forty years, being able to serve our clients and their families has always been our greatest gift. When Victory Wealth Partners was founded by Bud Verfaillie, he relied on three main principles, and they continue to guide the practice even today. “Always put your clients’ needs ahead of your own”, “treat every client like they are family”, and “find ways to give back to those who are in need”. These simple core values are the framework of our practice that guide our interactions and decisions with both our clients and our community. Deciding to operate as a fiduciary was an easy decision back in 2005 as it fit in perfectly with what we have always sought for our clients. We simply put in writing that we would act in the best interest of clients and put their needs ahead of their own. Our clients become family to us. In some cases, we are now working with third generation clients. It is special to work with grandparents, their children, and now even their grandchildren. Giving families peace of mind, especially during uncertain or turbulent times has always been important to Victory and it is wonderful to see that play out through different generations.

Giving back to those in need in our community has become an important part of our business. In the past, Bud has organized multiple hurricane relief trips to Florida and more recently was an instrumental part of the widespread tornado relief work in our very own town. For the past five years, Ashley and our staff have organized a coat drive for kids working with local school districts. Last winter we were proud to have placed our 250th coat. As we reflect on this past year, we are overwhelmed with gratitude for so many blessings and we are looking forward to welcoming a new year with our clients and their families. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a prosperous new year from the entire team at Victory Wealth Partners.


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

Investors Were Seeing Trick or Treat in October

Investors Were Seeing Trick or Treat in October

It was all treats no tricks for investors in October. Markets finally saw a healthy advance after struggling to find direction in September. Investors are wondering what this means for markets as we enter the typically strong season for stock market returns. As Bob Farrell once said “Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.”  However, while we can certainly hope that the October market lows marked the bottom, it is likely we will see more volatility before we finally see an all clear signal that markets are ready to resume new highs. As we move into 2023, the markets still have hurdles to get past. Long term valuations remain deviated, earnings are weakening, profit margins continue to be squeezed, and stock prices could still move lower. As inflation numbers continue to run hot, the Federal Reserve has shown no signs of slowing down their rate hike schedule. In fact, on November 2nd Jerome Powell’s commentary left investors nervous by his continued hawkish tone. While the .75% rate increase was expected and priced in, markets were looking for a sign that we are nearing the end of the hikes. Powell’s comment that it is still premature to even discuss rate hike pauses caused a late day 2.5% selloff. Moral of the story is that investors should remain cautious until the economy shows signs of improvement. Cautious does not mean “go to cash” but this is probably not the time to take on excessive risk and it is more important than ever to make sure you have an investment strategy and that you are following it.

You may be wondering how to invest in the case we do head into a recession. Many indicators suggest we could be heading into a recession next year, but unfortunately, we won’t know for sure until after the fact. It’s typically too late to make significant investment changes by that point. What we can do is heed the warnings we see and take any necessary pre-emptive actions as a result. That said, the most important thing isn’t necessarily what we should do but rather what should we avoid doing. During market downturns, allowing our emotions to guide decision making rarely ends in the way we hope. However, an investor may want to consider buying high quality companies that can be held. High quality companies with solid earnings are likely not going anywhere, even if they are undervalued in the short term. Equally important is to avoid selling quality companies just because their stock prices are down. Of course, it is not always easy to determine whether a company is truly a quality company with favorable fundamentals. This is why your investment strategy is vital.

I recently read The Motley Fool’s current take on how to invest during recessionary periods and I thought it was worth sharing. “The bottom line is that, during recessions, it’s important to stay the course. It becomes a bit more important to focus on top-quality companies in turbulent times, but, for the most part, you should approach investing in a recession in the same manner you would approach investing any other time. Buy high-quality companies or funds and hold on to them for as long as they stay that way.” Of course, this is often easier said then done. You must have a solid method for evaluating stocks ongoing as fundamentals can change. If your portfolio allocations are no longer performing their desired task, you may need to remove them. A solid investment strategy is important as it removes the emotions from the decision. A fiduciary investment advisor may be able to help you determine appropriate investment allocations while also considering your time horizon and individual goals. As always if you have any questions about your current portfolio or investment strategy, we are always happy to help. Be well and Happy Thanksgiving!


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Wealth Partners in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

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