Threat of Recession Still Looms

June 2023: Threat of Recession Still Looms

Is the worst over for the financial markets? As you recall, 2022 was a year marked by steep declines across both the equity and bond markets. Bonds, which are typically used as a “safe haven”, had their biggest drawdown since 1786. The S&P 500 declined over 18% for the same period. High inflation and aggressive rate hikes combined with tightening monetary policy led to decreased economic growth and steep declines across the broad-based markets. However, since October, we have seen a strong rebound off the bottom. Currently, the biggest debate among financial analysts lies between whether an economic recession is avoidable.

There are three main debates. Those concerned about debt increases, surging interest rates, and a reversal of stimulus believe that a “hard recession” is inevitable. Some see the higher equity prices and believe that “no recession” is likely and earnings will begin to rise again. Finally, some believe there is the possibility of a “soft recession,” where the economy does slow but does NOT lead to a sharp increase in unemployment or a dramatic decline in equity prices.

No one knows which of these will play out as there is fair evidence for each of them. Investors can only take the information available to them and decide how much risk they are willing to take on as a result. I do know that the stock market tends to be forward looking. Technically, markets now have a confirmed breakout from the October lows meaning there is certainly now the possibility of markets going higher. Fundamentally, earnings are expected to grow rapidly through the end of 2023 and break above the 2022 peak. Both are notches in the belt for the bulls in the crowd. However, sticky inflation, high interest rates and threats of economic slowdown still exist and shouldn’t be dismissed.

Bonds have also been the center of discussion lately. After their disastrous performance last year, investors may feel less confident in their ability to be used to decrease portfolio volatility. However, the current environment does give support for bonds to be set up for positive returns. Bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates. When interest rates are rising, bonds will be affected negatively. An obvious example of this was what happened in 2022. If the Federal Reserve does begin to cut rates later in the year, bond values will go up. Bonds are also significantly oversold, adding to the argument that it may be time to consider adding them back to portfolios soon. In fact, if we do proceed into a recession, bonds have an opportunity to not just act as a hedge in portfolios but could outperform equities by a considerable margin.

For now, we continue to tread cautiously. While we remain fully invested, we are cognizant of the risks that remain, and our portfolios are constructed accordingly. If you have any questions about the current market conditions or would like a second opinion of your current allocations, please give us a call. We are always here to help.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

May 2023 Market Prediction Buy, Sell or Stay

May 2023 Market Prediction: Buy, Sell or Stay

“Sell in May and go away” is an adage that you may hear each year around this time. It suggests it would be beneficial for investors to go on vacation from their portfolios starting in May and not returning until November. Some historical analysis suggests the summer months of the market tend to be the weakest of the year. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 2% from May through October. That compares with a roughly 7% average gain from November through April. 

However, there are plenty of times this strategy would not have paid off. Stocks tend to record gains throughout the year, on average, so selling in May generally doesn’t make a lot of sense. Stocks have still grown on average even during this historically slower period, with the S&P 500 up around 65% of the time. History suggests the opportunity cost of periodically exiting and reentering the market may be significant. It’s extremely hard to time the market consistently.

There are plenty of reasons to consider caution as we head into May. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates another 25 bps this week. The question remains what their next moves will be. Core CPI numbers (inflation measures minus food and energy) continue to be sticky. However, cracks in the overall economy from cumulative rate hikes are appearing. There are signs of job market softening as continuing unemployment claims are elevated. We have also seen obvious stress on financial institutions and there is concern that after math contamination could spread to other banks. Economic slowdown risk remains elevated. This certainly leaves the Federal Reserve in a challenging position.

The current environment leaves investors also wondering what to do next. This could be a good time to steer portfolios to areas of strength and momentum and away from the areas that are dragging. As we always say, “let your winners run and cut your losers quick”. I expect the Federal Reserve to at least pause further rate hikes for the time being. If that occurs, we could see some rotations in both the equity and bond markets. Areas of quality companies in equities historically have performed better after a rate hike pause and reversal. In the bond markets, we could see a move to longer duration high quality companies and out of the ultrashort areas that have been outperforming recently. We will just have to see if history repeats itself.

There is certainly a lot of uncertainty for markets as we head into summer, but I still don’t think you need to go on vacation with your investments this May. You certainly want to make sure you have a clear set of investment rules you are following. Your portfolio allocations should each have an identifiable role in your overall strategy and it’s ok to fire them if they stop fulfilling those roles. As always, if you have questions about your current portfolio allocations, we are always happy to discuss them with you. Until then, we wish you the very best and look forward to being back in June!


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

April Showers May Be Bringing Bull Markets to Investors

April Showers May Be Bringing Bull Markets to Investors

It seems that April showers may also be bringing bull markets to investors. After mixed messages in the early parts of 2023, it seems as though markets have given investors the green light…for now. Markets have seen a steady rise since the October lows and have held important lines of support during most recent pullbacks. Currently, the Bloomberg Economic Growth Consensus for the U.S. economy is rising, with only one-quarter of negative growth expected. This is an improved consensus from previous reports. Economic analysts are also more optimistic by expecting that S&P also sees earnings bottoming in the first quarter and returning to its January 2022 peak. Therefore, if the earnings forecasts are correct, the market should reflect those forecasts and rise toward the previous market tops we saw last January. This is good news for investors at least for the short term.

But didn’t we just experience a major financial banking meltdown? Not really. I went into detail about what happened with Silicon Valley Bank during my last video. You can access that here https://youtu.be/DYx8u4aJzHY. But it appears the failure of the few regional banks were isolated and there has not been widespread contamination as a result. Does it reinforce concerns of a potential recession? Absolutely. And despite market technicals looking strong right now, there are plenty of recession indicators still sounding alarms. Inverted yield curves have historically resulted in eventual recessions. Tighter monetary policy, stricter lending standards and higher costs to borrow have all been pre cursors to economic slowdowns. We can’t just ignore these and say confidently that the Federal Reserve has achieved the impossible and avoided recession. Essentially, someone is going to have to be wrong.

So, what does that mean for investors? We want to participant in market performance certainly while minimizing excessive risk when possible. This is a good time to review your portfolio and see if anything is not following your rules for investments. We like to follow the rule of let your winners run and cut your losers quick. This can be tough to do if you are trading with emotions but not if you have a set of investment rules to guide your process. The best time to look at your allocations and set up your investment plan is before anything major is happening in the markets. This helps to keep fear out of your decision making. If you do not have a set of rules currently, we are always happy to sit down with you and help you go through that process. We are always happy to help. In the meantime, I wish you a beautiful spring season and will be back next month. Be sure so follow our youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@victoryfiduciaryconsulting2773 so you catch our monthly market updates between blogs.

 

 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Increasingly aggressive rate hikes will likely cause stock prices to falter.

March 2023 Market Prediction: Signals Flashing “Not So Fast”

If you remember last month’s blog, I asked the question “has the bear market officially been cancelled?” One month later, I don’t think we know the answer yet. There is a lot of reasons to be bullish when we look at market technicals. The S&P 500 has notched seven weekly closes above its 40-week moving average, which is a positive sign. In addition, the market has cleared the 40-week daily week moving average downtrend line from January and December 2022, suggesting a potential bullish turn in the trend. Also noteworthy is that the during the most recent pullback, the S&P 500 also held the 200 day moving average. This was a very important line of support to hold and is now considered support instead of resistance. So, this must mean we are in the clear?

The fundamentals are still flashing “not so fast”. Over the next 12 months, the “bear market is over” thesis will depend much on the Federal Reserve, Government policies, and inflation.  Today I was listening to Jerome Powell speaking that we are likely to see the prime rate need to move higher than expected. Increasingly aggressive rate hikes will likely cause stock prices to falter. As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten financial policy, we will see economic growth wane. Moving forward, as they continue attempts to finally quell inflation, each additional rate hike could bring us closer to recession. A recession would mean slower growth and decreased profit margins for companies. This would directly affect stock valuations.

The technicals and fundamental backdrops are currently in stark contrast with one another. What does that mean for investors? I think it means we continue to tread with caution. This may mean participating in market performance without taking on excessive risk. Your portfolio construction should take into consideration how much risk you are willing to take on. What are your goals for your investment accounts? The longer your time horizon, the less concerned you may be about short term risk and more interested in long term performance. A prudent investment process can you help you determine what areas of the market you should consider investing in. A pre-determined set of investing rules can also help you act quickly when its time to fire a stock or fund that is no longer fulfilling its assigned function. Remember, your allocations should be working for you, not against you. If you have questions about your current investment allocations we are always happy to take a look with you. Its our pleasure to help. Have a wonderful March.

 


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

Has the bear market officially been cancelled

Has the bear market officially been cancelled?

Has the bear market officially been cancelled? Or are we amid another bear market rally not unlike what we experienced multiple times last year? Markets have had a strong start to the year with the S &P 500 rising more than 6% for the month of January. Although it has left investors scratching their heads wondering “what changed since December?” Last week Jerome Powell helped to fuel stock buying mayhem when he commented that the “disinflationary process has started.” This is a crucial statement, as noted by Yahoo Finance last Thursday: “Unlike inflation (prices going up) or deflation (prices going down), both of which economists fear in large quantities, disinflation means prices rise at a slower pace. Headline CPI, for example, rose 6.5% over the prior year in December after having jumped as much as 9.1% over the prior year in July. This deceleration in the pace of price increases is disinflation. “ This COULD give the Federal Reserve the ammunition needed to be less aggressive increasing rates. However, I believe they will need to continue at least two more rate hikes, and we are likely far from them even considering cutting rates. It is important to note that inflation remains elevated prices compared with historical averages so while we are cautiously optimistic, there remains potential risks for equities.

Market technicals are giving some signals that we are at least in a temporary bull market. Last week markets completed the “inverse head and shoulders” formation that could signal the bottom is finally in. Also notably, the 50-day moving average is rapidly closing in on a cross above the declining 200 day moving average. Such is known as the ‘golden cross’ and historically reassures investors that a bull market is preparing to move forward. You will recall last year we discussed the opposite of the signal as being the death cross and typically is the signal for a bear market. While market technicals ARE reassuring, we do need to still deal with the pesky lingering fundamental issues. Earnings and earnings estimates have been deteriorating. Inflation is still running over 5%. We still cannot dismiss the possibility of a recession on the horizon. This should at least give investors pause.

Certainly, as investors, we want to participate in market upswings. It is just important to make sure you don’t violate any of your investment rules in the process. As a reminder, don’t be afraid to cut losers quick and conversely let your winners run. Make sure your allocations have specific roles and responsibilities in your portfolio. If they are not fulfilling them, they may need to be replaced. Make sure decisions are driven by your rules and not emotions. Remember investment discipline will only work if you are following it. It’s always a nice way to start the year with strong gains after a year like 2022. The key now will be to see if we can continue the trend. As always, if you have any questions about your current investment portfolio, please give us a call. We are always happy to help.


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

Closing Out 2022 with Purpose and Gratitude

Closing Out 2022 with Purpose and Gratitude

As we approach another holiday season, it is always a wonderful time to reflect on all we are grateful for. As a family-owned investment management firm that has been operating for over forty years, being able to serve our clients and their families has always been our greatest gift. When Victory Fiduciary Consulting was founded by Bud Verfaillie, he relied on three main principles, and they continue to guide the practice even today. “Always put your clients’ needs ahead of your own”, “treat every client like they are family”, and “find ways to give back to those who are in need”. These simple core values are the framework of our practice that guide our interactions and decisions with both our clients and our community. Deciding to operate as a fiduciary was an easy decision back in 2005 as it fit in perfectly with what we have always sought for our clients. We simply put in writing that we would act in the best interest of clients and put their needs ahead of their own. Our clients become family to us. In some cases, we are now working with third generation clients. It is special to work with grandparents, their children, and now even their grandchildren. Giving families peace of mind, especially during uncertain or turbulent times has always been important to Victory and it is wonderful to see that play out through different generations.

Giving back to those in need in our community has become an important part of our business. In the past, Bud has organized multiple hurricane relief trips to Florida and more recently was an instrumental part of the widespread tornado relief work in our very own town. For the past five years, Ashley and our staff have organized a coat drive for kids working with local school districts. Last winter we were proud to have placed our 250th coat. As we reflect on this past year, we are overwhelmed with gratitude for so many blessings and we are looking forward to welcoming a new year with our clients and their families. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season and a prosperous new year from the entire team at Victory Fiduciary Consulting.


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

Investors Were Seeing Trick or Treat in October

Investors Were Seeing Trick or Treat in October

It was all treats no tricks for investors in October. Markets finally saw a healthy advance after struggling to find direction in September. Investors are wondering what this means for markets as we enter the typically strong season for stock market returns. As Bob Farrell once said “Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.”  However, while we can certainly hope that the October market lows marked the bottom, it is likely we will see more volatility before we finally see an all clear signal that markets are ready to resume new highs. As we move into 2023, the markets still have hurdles to get past. Long term valuations remain deviated, earnings are weakening, profit margins continue to be squeezed, and stock prices could still move lower. As inflation numbers continue to run hot, the Federal Reserve has shown no signs of slowing down their rate hike schedule. In fact, on November 2nd Jerome Powell’s commentary left investors nervous by his continued hawkish tone. While the .75% rate increase was expected and priced in, markets were looking for a sign that we are nearing the end of the hikes. Powell’s comment that it is still premature to even discuss rate hike pauses caused a late day 2.5% selloff. Moral of the story is that investors should remain cautious until the economy shows signs of improvement. Cautious does not mean “go to cash” but this is probably not the time to take on excessive risk and it is more important than ever to make sure you have an investment strategy and that you are following it.

You may be wondering how to invest in the case we do head into a recession. Many indicators suggest we could be heading into a recession next year, but unfortunately, we won’t know for sure until after the fact. It’s typically too late to make significant investment changes by that point. What we can do is heed the warnings we see and take any necessary pre-emptive actions as a result. That said, the most important thing isn’t necessarily what we should do but rather what should we avoid doing. During market downturns, allowing our emotions to guide decision making rarely ends in the way we hope. However, an investor may want to consider buying high quality companies that can be held. High quality companies with solid earnings are likely not going anywhere, even if they are undervalued in the short term. Equally important is to avoid selling quality companies just because their stock prices are down. Of course, it is not always easy to determine whether a company is truly a quality company with favorable fundamentals. This is why your investment strategy is vital.

I recently read The Motley Fool’s current take on how to invest during recessionary periods and I thought it was worth sharing. “The bottom line is that, during recessions, it’s important to stay the course. It becomes a bit more important to focus on top-quality companies in turbulent times, but, for the most part, you should approach investing in a recession in the same manner you would approach investing any other time. Buy high-quality companies or funds and hold on to them for as long as they stay that way.” Of course, this is often easier said then done. You must have a solid method for evaluating stocks ongoing as fundamentals can change. If your portfolio allocations are no longer performing their desired task, you may need to remove them. A solid investment strategy is important as it removes the emotions from the decision. A fiduciary investment advisor may be able to help you determine appropriate investment allocations while also considering your time horizon and individual goals. As always if you have any questions about your current portfolio or investment strategy, we are always happy to help. Be well and Happy Thanksgiving!


 

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

 

September Market Predictions Will It Bounce

September Market Predictions: Will It Bounce?

August certainly lived up to its reputation for being a volatile month for investors when Bears clearly regained control. After a large rally in July, many were left disappointed by the following month’s market performance. In last month’s article, we discussed there were some favorable signs the market was beginning to stabilize. However, one major potential hang up would be “if the Federal Reserve comes back needing to be more aggressive with rate hikes”. This played out on August 26th when Jerome Powell stated there was more “pain to come” speaking about ongoing inflation management and the need to continue to be aggressive with rates and monetary policy. Markets sold off steeply that day and have struggled to recover since. The S&P is currently down nearly 7% since that Powell’s address. So what now?

This time last month markets were significantly overbought, and we thought at least a pullback would occur to help burn off some of the excess in markets. Currently, the opposite is true. Markets are broadly oversold and so it would not be unexpected to see a bounce in the near term. What is not clear is if any reflexive rallies will be able to hold or if they will eventually give way to a lower low. We have currently fallen below our short-term support levels (50 Day Moving Average) once again with the market movements of the past two weeks. If we can reclaim the 50 Day, this could potentially allow markets to resume their moves higher once again. With markets being oversold, this is a possibility. But we also must acknowledge that there is still elevated risk within markets and we could still see movements lower from our current vantage.

What’s the takeaway for investors? If you are considering making major portfolio changes now, it could be advantageous to speak to a fiduciary investment advisor before making any adjustments. When emotions are the catalysts for changes, the results aren’t always what we had hoped for. Rather, we should be looking at our portfolio allocations as carrying out specific roles in our overall investment plan. Speak with a Fiduciary Advisor to make sure each allocation has been assigned a specific role and if they are no longer meeting their function then you may want to consider replacing them. Also, it is important to remember your time horizons for your accounts. Accounts with a longer time horizon can afford to take on more volatility. Conversely, if you know you are going to need a large portion of your account in the near term, you probably want to be invested more conservatively to limit volatility when possible. If you have specific questions about your accounts, we are happy to help anyway we can!

In a bit of good news, we did release our first “Summer School” video series in August. Our first videos feature local experts in the area of credit and debt repair, real estate, and mortgage and refinancing. Here is my most recent market update and you will find all the Summer School videos hosted in the same channel.

We will be releasing new informational videos this fall and winter so stay tuned! In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your September. See you next month!


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

dental practice exit strategy

Does Your Dental Practice Have an Exit Strategy?

Does your dental practice have an exit strategy?  Many do not. As a business consultant and financial advisor, I have learned many strategies to help business owners and their families navigate difficult decisions. One such decision is, “what am I going to do with my business?” “Should I keep it and pass it down to my heirs, or should I sell it?” This Keep/Sell scenario usually plays out before any planning is thought through and implemented. There never seems to be enough time; business owners are typically too busy running their day-to-day operations. In my experience, I have seen several business owners pass away or become totally disabled prior to any plan execution, leaving the family and employees scrambling to keep the business profitable. As the

American poet, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, once said:
“Great is the art of the beginning, but greater is the art of the ending.”

I was recently in Nashville TN at a business conference where I was introduced to a gentleman and his process of helping General Dentists/Business Owners with the problem of practice value; that is: “how to increase their practice value.” I was intrigued by the process. He stated the possibility of growing the practice with the added dimension of creating an exit strategy for the dentist. I have experience in this area, as I had helped the majority shareholder of a Dermatology practice with a successful exit strategy; however, this process was unique.

The strategy and process of increasing dental practice/business wealth was developed by Matt Kennedy of Dental Impact. As both the COO of a multimillion-dollar dental practice and a published author on the subject, Matt has developed a process that is simple, transparent, and effective. Having spoken to several dentists in the tristate area, I know that they are often approached by both their dental association and independent financial advisors regarding numerous financial subjects. However, I urge all who are reading this to keep an open mind and set 15 minutes aside to hear about Matt’s value proposition. To a general dentist or business owner, that 15 minutes could put $5-7 million dollars back into one’s retirement.

His proven process begins with “The Efficiency Accelerator” in which he uses a “Profit Scorecard”. In other words, he analyzes the business’ Profit & Loss Statement (P&L) along with their Personal Balance Sheet to find money they may be losing. Typically, millions are recovered over one lifetime.

“The Capacity Builder” is another step within Matt’s process. Using the “8 Driver of Practice Value” as a guide and “The Dental Freedom Code” to measure progress, dentists and business owners can see and capture the untapped potential of their practice, enabling them to get out of the dental chair or office.
Instead of an Exit Strategy, they’ll have a practice/business Options Strategy. If the choice is made to sell, one can sell up to 10x the current value. They also have the option to keep the practice and enjoy the profits without all the work. Or, ultimately, the choice could be made to pass the business down as their legacy.

A dental practice or business will be one of the most valuable assets one owns. Matt’s approach demonstrates how to take the outflows and redirect them back into the business. This will create more wealth and security in one’s retirement.

*Claim your free copy of Matt’s book, “Designing Dental Wealth” by emailing jacobr@victoryfiducairy.com. Please provide your name, address, and phone number and a copy will be mailed to you.


JACOB Riloff, Chfc, Casl

Jacob is the Strategic Consultant at Victory Fiduciary Consulting. In that capacity, he specializes in business development issues for closely held businesses and their owners. He is an expert in business succession planning, exit strategies and advanced insurance planning techniques. Jacob focuses on providing business owners with sound planning to increase shareholder value in their privately held businesses. He has over twenty years of experience as a business-planning advisor.

August Market Predictions The Seesaw Continues

August Market Predictions: The Seesaw Continues

Will the summer rally that started in July continue to pick up steam or will August cool off for investors? Markets were extremely bearish, extremely oversold, and were overdue for a counter rally after the steep selloffs experienced in May and June. We finally saw the expected rally in July where the S&P 500 rose over 8%. We also began to see a rotation from areas of value to areas of growth. Particularly to note, technology stocks have been making a large move off their bottom. Technically, we are currently trading two standard deviations above our moving averages. This means markets are currently overbought and will need to either have a slight pullback or at least trade sideways until some of the overbought conditions can be worked off. In other words, don’t be surprised if markets stagnate for a bit as markets do not typically move straight up. Currently the S&P 500 is finally trading above its 50-day moving average and this is now the current support line. If we can hold above this line, even during pullbacks this would be an encouraging sign that market strength is returning. Market breadth is also returning as currently 36% of funds in the NYSE are currently experiencing new highs versus new lows. That number was as low as 4% in June.

What does this mean in English? I believe the signs are reassuring that markets could continue their move higher. Potential hang ups for the market would be if inflation numbers continue to rise unchecked, or if the federal reserve comes back needing to be more aggressive with rate hikes. So far, earnings reports are showing weak earnings but “not as bad as expected” so markets are considering that a win. I would expect any unexpected weak economic data that has not been priced in could temporarily cool down the market response. We will be hearing more about July’s economic numbers in the coming days. I think any positive news could add to the current rally’s fire.

What should investors consider as we wait to see which way the market moves? Often, we can see major market rotations when we come out of a significant correction. What was working a few months ago may not continue to work once the dust has settled and new market leaders emerge. Don’t be afraid to cut out allocations that are no longer performing their role. Remember, every holding should have a defined purpose. When the market has truly bottomed, and we are on our way to a new bull cycle you want to be properly positioned to capture the current areas of strength and momentum. If you aren’t sure if you are properly allocated, this could be the right time to speak with a fiduciary financial adviser to make sure you are stacking the odds in your favor. No one knows what the market’s next move will be, we can only try to be properly prepared for what might come next.

As we enter in the last month of summer, we have been working hard taping and editing our first “Summer School” series. We have worked with leaders in the mortgage, real estate, debt management and estate planning fields to bring timely relevant content to our YouTube channel. It will be live in the coming weeks, and we hope you check it out. I also record monthly market update videos for our Youtube channel. You can watch our most current video below!

Until next month, enjoy these last weeks of summer. As always you can call me with any questions. We are happy to help.


ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.